The end of the article points out an important issue that tends to compound searches and make it difficult to isolate a search area. The group had no injuries, so they kept moving, but only they knew which direction they were going. Moving targets can be extremely difficult to find, and the longer they are away from the point last seen, the bigger the search area becomes. This was the same problem searchers had last week in Denali park.

In search theory we have something called "Probability of Area," which is the statistical liklihood that a missing subject will be found in a certain area. We tend to look at maps and try to figure out the most likely route a hiker would take. There are certain behaviors that are statistically more likely for certain categories of missing subjects (kids, experienced hikers, inadvertent hikers, groups, psych patients, etc.), and we combine that with the information we gleen from maps, and then can break a map down into sectors that can be searched, with priority given to the areas of highest probability. The problem is, when people are on the move, it doesn't take long for the probable search area to expand, and within a few days the search area becomes TRW, or "The Rest of the World."

The conundrum becomes, if you're healthy and there is no reason to believe that you can't hike out on your own, why should you stay put? How is a "lost" person to know that a search is coming? There is no easy answer... best thing you can do is leave as many clues as you can to indicate direction of travel, if you decide to try to hike out. Clothing strips tied to trees periodically, cairns, sticks on your trail... all help searchers find you. If you're in a large open area, leave signs large enough to be seen from the air. Those who volunteer on SAR teams go through tons of training just for spotting clues, so don't think a deliberate clue will be missed.

Off my soapbox...

Thanks...

MNS