Great post WD. Thx. I hope you don't mind how I snip out some content.

FYI: I can't come up w/a good term for describing the many outdoor activities which are performed on foot so w/your indulgence i'll just start referring to hikers whenever I speak contextually.

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1) I was once a "newbie" and my gear was not based on fear mongering.

For every rule there's an exception. Often the dearth of such exceptions prove the rule. ;-)

Furthermore, very, very few hikers will admit to fear based decisions in this context (and in most others as well).

Finally, there is subconscious affect. Exemplified by the "Ten Essentials." Ie, few will say the TEs are based on fear, much less fear mongering. But it's cumulative whether they realize it or not. For proof look at their gear lists.

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I was lucky that I started out in an organized group with good training and dedicated mentors for us beginners

Once again making you an exception. As you imply by writing that you were lucky.

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so I was taught what were essentials and what were not.

At the risk of sounding argumentative .... I would bet that most of those essentials .... weren't essential. ;-)

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2) I do not think you can separate cause and effect with hypothermia and poor judgement.

Sorry WD, you misunderstood me. I didn't address that specific issue because MNS had already done so, eloquently, and I wanted to point out that hypothermia was a less likely cause of poor decision making .... for the vast majority of people.

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3) As for backpacking being "safer than driving a car" (not your comment but another poster's comment), it takes a very narrow definition of backpacking to assert this as a fact.

I completely disagree! Within the context of this thread (as i understand it; serious injury rescues and death) there can be no doubt that serious traffic accidents occur w/much more frequency than hiking related serious rescue and/or death incidents.

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In some environments, backpacking is NOT as safe as driving; in some it is.

Sorry once again but you missed my point: The vast majority of hikers, specially beginners, avoid dangerous environments and/or situations.

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Is winter backpacking as safe as driving a car? Is winter a time of year or a set of condtions?

Forgive the broken record: Beginners seldom hike in winter conditions. When they do they often are over-prepared. And usually accompanied by an expert. It is that expert who's most likely to get them in trouble (excepting commercially lead hikes).

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4) Every newbie (and experienced backpacker too) should read statistics on accidents - not as a part of fear mongering but to try to learn a little from others misfortunes.

Please enlighten me. I sincerely would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

I believe that newbies learn nothing of value from the constant onslaught. Except to be over-prepared and i've already addressed that issue.

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Accidents in North American Mountaineering is on my yearly reading list

Which would help explain why you feel that hiking is often more dangerous than driving a car. Please don't think i'm trying to put words in your mouth. That is what I feel you were saying in general. Because you disagreed w/my opinions in re the nature of the vast majority of serious hiking incidents.

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I learn something each year I read the new report.

I don't bother. Call me ignorant (it's ok, i am ignorant of much), but I see no value in learning that Joe Smith was taken from us by an avalanche. It only saddens me. Although it certainly does help keep me from hiking in such conditions. JIC you're wondering .... not due to fear. But due to the fact that I detest winter. I don't even want to see snow and ice in my refrigerator. I kid, I kid, but I do hate winter.

Ok, i'm an experienced hiker, but not only have I yet to learn anything of value from an incident report, I defy *anyone* to tell me what they have learned from reading incident reports that they shouldn't have known in the first place due to common sense and a modicum of research.

Of course I exclude winter hiking conditions in general and mountaineering specifically. Because the vast majority of hikers do not risk either. Which brings us back full circle. [sigh]

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I do not think that focusing on safety is fear mongering.

Good. We agree on something at last!!! ;-)

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Granted, the outdoor industry would have you believe that you must have their latest gizmo in order to survive! But that's advertising. Nobody really believes all that!

As I pointed out: It's not just the Hyped ads at fault. It's cumulative.

And it's safe to say that most people *do* believe all that. The proof is that the ads continue to run. Nuff said?

Peace

Richard.