The truth is it's very, very difficult to judge a person's capability based on a few posts, or even many posts, and it's very very easy to make false assumptions.

The platform that supports a person's ability to succeed safely consists of many facets. Experience, both in and out of backpacking, is certainly important. But so is physical conditioning, mental fortitude, age, and scores of other factors. And multiply all those by the number of other people they'll be with. A newbie's chances rise considerably in the presence of experienced partners. Then again a newbie can also be a liability to an experienced party.

Sometimes on other boards I'll see folks ask questions like "How long will it take me to get from point Y to point X?" or "How much water will I need to get to the summit?" And then I see exact answers being offered. "3 hours" or "2.5 quarts". I cringe at that. How can anyone offer advice based on so little information?

Of course there are certain red flags. If someone proclaims that they're going to make the first solo ascent of K-2 in December wearing sandals, I'll try to discourage them.

So what is my point?

Nothing. Just ranting <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />