Jim
thats way too small of ground cloth and not nearly enough toilet paper for an "emergency". I also didn't see a winter tent on your list. I believe you need clothes that will let you hike for 5 miles in a 40 degree rain storm, and you need the ability to seriously "go to ground". A real winter tent is about the most important item, then adequate sleeping bags and pads, and a real winter stove.

The worst winter mistakes are, inadequate sleeping bag and pads, ANY type of shelter besides a real winter tent, and taking a summer cook stove like an alcohol stone or screw on top of fuel can stove. Take a liquid fuel stove. Your sleeping bag should be rated for at least ten degrees or more than what you expect to see. Ultralight summer shells should be replaced with heavier nontear ones, it could save your life to have proper winter weight shells and boots. Jim