I have both the Exos 48 and 58 (the 58 would be for cold weather or extended trips, where my load is bulkier.) I normally leave the trailhead with my 48 weighing about 18-20 pounds, total, for a weekend. I love the Exos. Supportive suspension, comfortable carry, nice features but (except for trekking pole storage gimmick) no unnecessary features or extra compartments.

Not so much the Talon - the suspension is a bit too light, and the hipbelt tends to fold over for me at loads of 25 pounds or more. I've used it, and passed it along to some poor unsuspecting Boy Scout.

Our loads look very similar (I use different brands, but the general outlines are similar - I'd guess about 14-16 pounds before food & water?) However, I'm not sure about bulk. I'd recommend that you take the gear in your list, filled water bottles, plus 5 days worth of food and any extra clothing (and maybe an insulated jacket) and go to an outfitter that carries the Exos packs, and load one up to see how you like it (both carry and organization) and which capacity you need.

As far as VA outfitters - REI carries the Exos. There's also an outfitter in Norfolk called Wild River Outfitters. One of my former Scouts, Mike, is an assistant manager there, and would be glad to let you do that; he's very knowledgeable about gear, and an all-around good guy. (He's also an AT thru-hiker, and ex-SEAL.) His store stocks a lot of good gear, including Osprey packs (at least they did the last time we talked, a few weeks back) and probably some others. If you want a brief intro to him, Google "watch mike hike" to link to his videos of some of his hikes.