Another one you should consider is the Exped UL7 Synmat. It is a bit more pricey, but oh, so comfortable (for me, anyway).

If you're going to be out in nights below 45*F, your mat definitely needs some insulation. If you'll be out in fall or spring, look at the insulated versions of the pads you mention. They aren't winter pads, but will keep you warm on nights that get down to the 30s and 20s F. You need to be prepared for something a bit lower than the "average" low temperature.

I would head for a store and try various pads out on the floor. Or order several, try them out on your living room floor and send back the ones you don't want. Individual sleep styles vary considerably. Not everyone is comfortable with all mats. For example, I found the NeoAir very uncomfortable--due to its horizontal baffles it "bucked me off" every time I turned over, which I do frequently at night. Chasing the thing around the tent got old really fast! Others think the NeoAir is wonderful. One thing I like about Exped mats is that the outside lengthwise tubes are slightly bigger, which keeps me from rolling off. (Other mats may also have that feature.) Your Mileage May (and probably will) Vary!

Whatever pad you get, spend a couple of nights on the floor at home with it, while you can still return it.

Even though you need the padding (I certainly do!) under hips and shoulders, you can usually get by with a shorter (and thus lighter) mattress by putting your pack under your lower legs and feet. I usually sleep curled up in the fetal position, so a full length pad is just wasted weight for me.

Note that a fully blown-up air pad is like sleeping on a brick. Squishy is how you want it!