Stupid far can be avoided with experience. I measure miles, count contour lines (OK, nowadays I use the TOPO program) and carefully look for water sources and potential campsites for each trip. I estimate my travel rate including extra time for elevation gain and river crossings. I keep track of my travel times when on the trip. When I return, I edit the spreadsheet and see if I exceeded my plan or went much slower. Over time, I am able to estimate my personal "far" quite accurately. I like to mix it up - some days "stupid easy", some days "stupid far", and some days "just right". And I always build in weather contingency. Most "stupid far" days are a result of making up lost time due to bad weather days.

OM- I do not think I will ever be able to get down to your base weight! One of my big items is the 2 pound bear canister that I am required to use on most of my trips. The other is my sleeping bag - it is a 2#14oz 5-10 degree bag (WM Super Antelope). I am probably the world's coldest sleeper!

I allow myself to one pound of frivolous extras. That could be a light down jacket that is more for comfort than necessity, some fresh food, a book, thicker sleeping pad, more chocolate etc.