I would trust option #1 more than #2.

But Rick D is right. In a prolonged rain sometimes the best you can do is hike warm and wet and sleep dry and warm.

On a 35 degree morning changing from dry sleeping clothes to a shirt that is still wet from the previous day is...brisk, but that may be what you need to do.
_________________________
"In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not."
Yogi Berra