Originally Posted By Marc
I do not believe the odds of getting hurt are the same for everyone. I realize the dangers are the same. The odds of someone like me, a greenhorn, getting lost,mauled,etc. are much greater than they are for someone with your experience. Therefore stats are basically worthless.


I really don't think that's true. A well read greenhorn has an edge over someone who just packed junk in a bag and goes out on a trail. Also, not many people get hurt, period. All you do is decrease an already small risk - but that's what we all do, when we research and read and ask questions.

If you really want to see a perfect example of how small a risk there is, consider Yosemite. Hordes of people who never hike more than a couple of miles in a mall flock to see it. It's not a theme park but a wilderness area - but the tourists don't understand that and they don't know how to prepare. The ratio of injuries to people going out in the trail system is shockingly low, considering all the knuckleheads who don't bother reading the leaflets they hand out at the gate, who feed the deer, try to take closeups of the bears by walking up to them, go to Half Dome in flipflops, head up the Mist Trail with half a liter of water, etc. etc. On one hike to Vernal Falls I saw a wedding party (four inch heels and tuxedos, great hiking gear!), nuns in full habit, ladies in burkhas and about a zillion and a half other people speaking at least ten different languages, none of them in any kind of hiking gear. A lot of them turned back at the lower bridge, but a surprising number make their way up one of the steepest, wettest trails in the park to Nevada Falls. The open granite is hot in temperate conditions because of the sun bouncing back in your face. People overheat and SAR frequently puts someone at the top to filter water for those who don't have enough.

You may feel like you're at more risk, but I doubt it. You're reading a backpacking forum, that gives you a leg up over millions of people who go to Yosemite who just go for a "short hike."

I am always a proponent of doing what makes you feel safe, however, so if you're not quite up to believing the black bears will avoid you most places, take what you need. Panicked people are more dangerous to themselves - making decisions under the influence of adrenalin can also be dangerous.
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