Sleeping system warmth: Where I backpack (high Cascades spring and fall, Rockies in summer) I have to be prepared for temps down to 20*F or a little lower. From your experience, it sounds as though you should be prepared for the mid-20's. I tried the bit about a 32* bag plus warm insulating clothing (some claim they can stretch the bag rating by 10*F) and it didn't work for me. I'd say you definitely need a warmer sleeping bag and a warmer pad! A lot of bags and pads are not accurately rated (the cheaper they are, the less accurate) or at least are rated for "warm" sleepers, of which I'm definitely not one. For those few bags sold in the US that are rated by the EU's standards, I'd want a bag and pad rated--comfort rating for women, lower than that for men--to 5*F lower than the lowest temperature I'd expect to encounter. Western Mountaineering bags are rated more conservatively; my 20* Ultralight has taken me to 15* comfortably with additional clothing. That 32* bag I mentioned above (Marmot Hydrogen) started getting cold for me at about 40* and, even with all my outer clothing on, I really suffered the night it went down to 25*. (That's when I sold it--on this forum--and got the WM Ultralight.) My pad (POE Ether Thermo 6) is rated to 15*. For me, it's OK down to about 25* but I'd want a supplemental CCF pad any lower than that. I tried the NeoAir last summer and fall, got cold in it without supplement below 40* and last fall shivered all night at 18*F (only underneath) on a NeoAir plus thin CCF pad. For the cold nose, a fleece (polypro fleece especially good because it doesn't absorb moisture) balaclava pulled up over the nose works great for me and keeps most of my breath moisture from getting into the sleeping bag. For some reason I need a hat inside my sleeping bag sooner than any other insulation!

Clothing: You don't need an extra shirt but you do need an insulating layer! Fleece is fine--it is bulkier and heavier than something like Montbell's UL Thermawrap or UL Down Inner Parka (the latter warmer than the former for about the same weight), but is a lot less expensive, especially since you can often find it in thrift shops. While your hiking shirt/pants may get wet during the day, make sure your insulation layer and your base layer stay dry!

Which brings us to the third topic, rain: There are a number of techniques to keep yourself comfortable when it's wet, especially when it's wet and cold. Some need to be learned from experience, which you can best acquire by getting out in the rain in controlled conditions. In other words, pick a wet weekend to practice in your back yard. Then, either go car-camping in cold wet weather or backpack not more than a mile away from the trailhead, so if all else fails you can bail out before things turn bad. Remember, if you start shivering, it's time to bail out IMMEDIATELY--that's the first stage of hypothermia! If you live in a desert, at least practice in your back yard with the sprinklers on.

Rule 1 is to keep your insulation--that's your insulating clothing and your sleeping bag--dry no matter what. That means either using dry bags (stuff sack closures are not waterproof) or a waterproof pack liner (such as a trash compactor bag) with a waterproof closure (candy-cane closure usually works) checked daily for possible holes (that's why you carry duct tape, lol). Pack liners protect the outside of the pack but are useless in case of immersion or during long rains in which rain running down between your back and the pack soaks into the back side of the pack. Test your means of keeping insulation dry in the bathtub at home to be sure they really are waterproof. That also means not getting your insulating clothing sweaty--if you're sweating under your rain gear, you should not be wearing any insulating layers at all! Keep your insulating layer inside something waterproof and slip it on under your rain gear when you stop, removing it (and keeping it dry) when you start hiking again. That also means not wearing damp clothing inside your sleeping bag--I keep my base layer dry inside my pack, wear it at night and under the rain gear on cold wet mornings, and take it off before I take the tent down (last thing) and start hiking.

I far prefer a rain jacket and pants to a poncho because the latter doesn't keep my arms dry at best of times and when there's horizontal rain or wet grass/brush doesn't keep anything dry. If it's warm and wet, I just hike in my hiking shirt and pants (both quick-dry materials which will be dry from my body heat within 20 minutes if it stops raining) and let them get wet. If it's cold, I hike in full rain gear but with no insulating layer (if it's below freezing I might add a lightweight fleece vest under the rain jacket, plus hat and gloves plus rain mitts) except when I stop. If my hiking clothing hasn't dried by bedtime, it goes into a plastic bag in the bottom of my sleeping bag so that it won't get the sleeping bag insulation damp but at least will be warm (even if damp) when I put it on in the morning. The same is true for wet socks. I sleep in my base layer (kept dry) and have dry sleeping socks. BTW, I've found that merino wool socks feel a lot warmer and more comfortable when wet than do synthetics--that after years of resisting wool because the mere thought of it made me itch (merino wool doesn't).

Setting up camp: There are ways of setting up a double-wall American tent in the rain which require the inner tent to be set up first, generally by draping the fly over you and the inner tent while setting up the inner tent) to keep the inner tent from getting soaked before you get the fly up. Practice this technique many times at home first! Good luck! I far prefer a single-wall tent or a tarp to avoid this problem. Or you can get a European-made double wall tent or a Tarptent Scarp--for them the fly goes up first and you pitch the inner underneath the waterproof fly. Before you get this far, pick your tent site in a place that is not in a depression that will turn into a lake in heavy rain. (I learned this the hard way--same experience in which I learned that a soggy synthetic sleeping bag is just as useless as a soggy down bag.) Your shelter should be at the top of your pack (mine's in an outside pocket) so you can set it up while keeping the rest of your pack contents dry. Then move the pack inside and unpack it under cover. Do the reverse when packing up in the morning. Again, practice getting the shelter down without getting the inside of it wet!

If there's a "sunbreak" (as they are called here in the Northwest) during the day, stop and take advantage of it by airing out your tent, sleeping bag and insulating clothing. Of course, be ready to get everything under cover again in a big hurry!

I've never had any problem with my canister stove; I either start it (carefully!) partly sheltered by my tent vestibule or (usually) crawl under a tree. You might want to be more careful with alcohol. Again, practice using it in the rain at home or while car-camping. It helps if you can wait for the rain to slow down to at least a drizzle before lighting the stove. Once the pan is on the stove, the flame is sheltered.

Do practice and test these techniques a number of times before you actually get out on the trail in the rain!