Mattress, I haven't audited your list. But I wonder if the weight you suggest as base weight is "sustainable" over the long haul where it might do just fine for a weekend. Depends too if you're walking on trail or off or at lower elevations primarily or in alpine. I buy OregonMouse/s comments to some extent in that so much depends on the experience and the age and condition of the backpacker. I might consider your load in my 20's but add a few pounds for pleasure and camp enjoyment in my 40s. Since my base weight is around 16lbs with a floor in my tarptent and a few camp comforts like raingear and sleeping clothing, I suppose I'm not an UltraLight backpacker. I am good for sustained backpacking in the alpine with unpredictable conditions down to -5C.
I think more so than the amount of time out, is the ability to shift schedules and/or bail out of conditions
get bad. For example, I'm going to take a bit more stuff, and a bit of extra food, if I'm on a week long hike, with nowhere to bail out, and the possibility exists I get stuck by weather below a pass for a day or two. OTOH, while the possibility of this is not 0, if let's say, there's a bailout route if I do get stuck and the weather turns to "double delta sierra" - There - there's my plan - if it really goes cruddy, my plan is not
to use extra gear and/or food - it's to bail out. Nothing wrong with this as a strategy, as long as you actually hold to it when the organic materiel hits the spinning object.
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