I do look at long range forecasts, but I don't count on them. Where I live, the weather I get comes from either across Canada, or up the US east coast, or a blend of both. I know if there's a storm in Toronto, or New York, chances are in a couple days I'll get rain. I hope that it will move either north or east of me for sunshine, but that doesn't always happen. I look for a general idea of what may be coming, but never count on it. I don't have to worry about the area making it's own weather, but the way weather tracks can vary the forecasts greatly. This year I've looked to see whether it would rain that evening... morning said 60% chance, by noon down to 20%, by the end of the workday 80% and it rained.

When I looked last week at our forecast for this week, they were calling for sunny, warm weather all week... around 28C. On Monday morning, the temperature went from summer to fall and we had cloudy around 18C. Today is sunny, but still cool temperatures. Put that scenario in a mountainous region, think 10C change to 0C, and it only amplifies it more.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.