Anyway, to start with a simple question:
Have you ever hiked for 4 hours with a pack (at least partly up hill) in pouring down rain?
Yes, I've hiked for multiple days in heavy rain.
Did you stay dry (10,20,30....100%?)??
No, I eventually got wet.
I've done a Gore Tex Jacket, Marmot Precip Jacket and a sil-nylon poncho. I prefer the poncho in warm weather (generally >50 F) and the precip in colder weather.
Do you think most of the water was from the outside (rain) or inside (sweat)??
The water was coming both from inside and out (sweat and leakage from openings).
From a strategy stand point you would:
A. Not go hiking if the forecast was 90% chance of rain.
B. Go hiking in spite of a bleak forecast because you are not .....a pantywaist.
C. Change plans to make the hike shorter.
I would only consider cancelling a trip if it were going to be longer than 3 days and it was definitely going to rain the entire time.
My main advice would be to make sure you keep everything in your pack dry (i.e. use a pack liner like a trash compactor bag, and a pack cover), keep yourself warm, and carry an "auxiliary" shelter. Whether this be an extra tarp or a tarp/poncho that you wear, it is worth the extra weight to have something to hangout under. This gives you an area to do things like cook in, and you are not relegated to your tent.
The other thing is to just get over the psychological part of being wet. The way I got over it was by doing my training hikes in the rain. I purposely going out when it sucks. After having done this several times, I finally got over it. This also gives me an opportunity to test my rain gear.
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