#173015 - 12/13/1211:08 AMAn average winter on the West coast?
skcreidc
member
Registered: 08/16/10
Posts: 1590
Loc: San Diego CA
First serious storm for California; it's dumping in San Diego so that's my reasoning . Ignoring that though, this front traveled the full length of the state as well as Oregon and Washington. Not a bad start; looking like a more or less average year.
#173026 - 12/13/1201:18 PMRe: An average winter on the West coast?
[Re: skcreidc]
hikerduane
member
Registered: 02/23/03
Posts: 2124
Loc: Meadow Valley, CA
Up north here, we had a very serious storm two weeks ago now. I posted some photos of the creek that goes across my property over on Classic Camp Stoves. Went on a very short mileage bp trip last weekend, up higher where I was at, only a tiny bit of snow here and there, but in the distance towards the Sierra Buttes and Pilot Peak, still snow on those higher peaks. Duane
A few stations in the Shasta area reported feet of rain during the three back-to-back storms earlier this month, meaning lots of water gained in Shasta Lake, the state's biggest. Likewise, the Feather basin received a lot, which was great for Oroville (SWP's main reservoir). In our neck of the woods, the Sacramento River jumped ten feet, which always gets our attention.
The storms were warm so there was some snow accumulation but nothing spectacular, and the southern Sierra got decent rain but nowhere near what hit the northern range or the southern Cascades. Last year was critically dry in the southern Sierra, so hopefully it will get hit dead on by a few storms this season.
In sum, a great start and possibly a normal to better-than season, but I'm too accustomed to seeing the storm door slam shut for a month or two midwinter to predict anything yet. But hey, no fires!
#173067 - 12/14/1211:35 AMRe: An average winter on the West coast?
[Re: Rick_D]
skcreidc
member
Registered: 08/16/10
Posts: 1590
Loc: San Diego CA
You two make it sound like it's good so far. Supposedly, the jet stream will work its way south your way by Monday (down to Redding). That should make snow levels drop a bit as well as bring a bit of precipitation. Funny looking pattern though, like it's trying to make up its mind as to what to do. Here's to hoping for the best.
#173071 - 12/14/1212:45 PMRe: An average winter on the West coast?
[Re: skcreidc]
OregonMouse
member
Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 6800
Loc: Gateway to Columbia Gorge
Actually, the weather folks say this is a non-typical year, since the El Nino that started to develop over the summer fizzled. It's a year of what they call "La Nada" (nothing). Interestingly, some past "La Nada" years have seen some extremely violent storms. However, the weather folks are not predicting one way or another.
I've learned a lot following Dr. Cliff Mass' weather blog. He is a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle and highly respected among Pacific Northwest meteorologists. While he concentrates on western Washington, a lot of his posts cover general west coast weather. I don't have the time to go look up specific posts, but he has been posting about "La Nada" since late summer.
Edited by OregonMouse (12/14/1212:46 PM)
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Climate modeling gets progressively better, but is ultimately an odds-setting tool. I dug around and found this, specific to California and the Colorado basin (dated 11.12.12).
Quote:
The Department of Water Resources convened researchers from the University of Colorado, the California-Nevada Applications Program RISA Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Hydrometeorology Testbed program to develop and review an experimental forecast for this winter’s water supply outlook. A primary source of skill in making seasonal climate outlooks for the Western U.S. is the status and expected behavior of the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO neutral conditions were diagnosed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in late 2012, and will probably continue into early 2013. Given ENSO neutral conditions, an experimental statistical forecast combined with consideration of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, average of North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, Alaskan temperatures, and Indian Ocean Dipole status suggests the following outlook: �� Drier than normal for the northern two-thirds of California and in southeastern California through April �� Near-normal or possibly wetter than average for the central and south coastal regions �� Drier than normal for the Colorado River Basin, an important source of water supply for Southern California “The expected negative PDO appears to carry the most weight as a forcing factor this winter”, according to Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado, who was the chief architect of the experimental outlook. Other factors such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) may also be influential, although the MJO acts at shorter time scales than seasonally persistent patterns such as ENSO. This winter’s expected MJO conditions do not favor enhancement of atmospheric river (AR) storms, which are often important to both water supply and flood conditions in the state. “Our Hydrometeorology Testbed work has provided preliminary evidence that AR storms making landfall in California are most active in certain phases of the MJO”, said Marty Ralph of NOAA.
The N-Calif 8-station index is at 190% of average and the San Joaqin 5-station index is at 138%, which is a great start to the winter. Ultimately, December-February are the critical months and we'll need several storms in that time for just an average year. The season's first Calif snow survey will be on Jan 1.
#173083 - 12/15/1212:41 AMRe: An average winter on the West coast?
[Re: Rick_D]
TomD Moderator
Registered: 10/30/03
Posts: 4963
Loc: Marina del Rey,CA
Talked to a friend of mine today who lives in Mammoth. Plenty of snow up there and cold - about 4F at the top during one of the days this week - today I think, and about 20F in town.
Raining tonight in LA and cold, for here anyway, so probably snow at the higher elevations.
Edited by TomD (12/15/1212:46 AM)
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Talked to a friend of mine today who lives in Mammoth. Plenty of snow up there and cold - about 4F at the top during one of the days this week - today I think, and about 20F in town.
Raining tonight in LA and cold, for here anyway, so probably snow at the higher elevations.
Right now Mammoth has the most snow of the ski resorts in conus.I'm about 35 min south of Mammoth.
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#173127 - 12/17/1211:41 AMRe: An average winter on the West coast?
[Re: rockchucker22]
skcreidc
member
Registered: 08/16/10
Posts: 1590
Loc: San Diego CA
Question on storm timing. Living in SD, it's typical for storms coming out of the Northwest to arrive 12 to 24 hours later than predicted. This latest series of fronts is the latest example. Very rarely do they nail timing down, and the storm is usually coming more from the West when this happens. Is this happening up in Northern California? Oregon? Washington? Just wondering about timing and confidence in such for trips up in N. California this winter.
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. Ignoring that though, this front traveled the full length of the state as well as Oregon and Washington. Not a bad start; looking like a more or less average year.
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