I would say your starting way to late this year, most are already deep in the Sierra, have you looked at any of the PCT trail blogs from this year? You have a pretty long section in southern Ca that is already cooking and pretty dry, most hikers are well past those parts already.
_________________________
The wind wont howl if the wind don't break.
From what I'm seeing online there are actually very few groups who have made it to the Sierras. Yes, the pack is getting close, but they are nowhere 'deep' as in 1000 miles up the trail. Average seems to be around 300-500 miles in. By doing longer days I figure that I should be able to hit the larger streams and lakes that never go dry, or only do very late in the season. I'm fully prepared to carry 2 1/2 gallons when I need to through most of the southern section.
Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 6800
Loc: Gateway to Columbia Gorge
By late next month, the southern California section will be both very hot and, in this year of horrendous drought, very dry. The water caches will no longer be maintained and most natural sources will have dried up. Are you already in condition to do 30 mile days with all the water you'll have to carry?
There is often plenty of snow in the high Cascades of northern Washington by early October. Some years sooner, some years later, but that's a good average. Many years, people who try to stretch the season into October have been stopped in the middle of Washington.
With a late June start, had you considered going southbound instead (that's about as early as you can start in the North Cascades)?
Your list mostly looks pretty good to me. I'd definitely add a lightweight base layer top and bottoms. Frost and snow can happen any time of year at high altitude, even in midsummer, and certainly by September. While in motion on cool days your shirtsleeves may be too cool but the Nanopuff will be far too warm--an added lightweight baselayer top is (for me) often just right. I'd also be concerned if your quilt and pad (and your balaclava) won't take you down to 20 degrees F.
_________________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view--E. Abbey
Yeah the long days between water is what has been worrying me the most about SoCal. I guess a better question is, will there be reliable water sources frequently enough no matter what the drought ends up being like? I feel like as long as I have a lake or stream that is guaranteed to have water I can plan accordingly for the amount of water that I carry between those sources. Thoughts?
I was just in the southern sierra and ran into a lot of PCT hikers, there is a bunch in Kennedy Meadows, and plenty well past. I'll be hiking a section near cottonwood next week and can give you some more info then.
The water in So Ca will not be reliable this year, the drought is in full effect, and isn't likely to change.
_________________________
The wind wont howl if the wind don't break.
Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 6800
Loc: Gateway to Columbia Gorge
If (big if!) the promised El Nino hits, Southern California might get some rain by November, another argument in favor of a southbound hike. Or you can start in the Sierra (which would give you time to get to Canada before the snow flies) and flipflop back to do Southern California last--even if it isn't wetter, it will be a lot cooler.
_________________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view--E. Abbey
Our long-time Sponsor, BackcountryGear.com - The leading source for ultralite/lightweight outdoor gear:
Affiliate Disclaimer: This forum is an affiliate of BackcountryGear.com, Amazon.com, R.E.I. and others. The product links herein are linked to their sites. If you follow these links to make a purchase, we may get a small commission. This is our only source of support for these forums. Thanks.!