Dunno about that. Honestly for anything *really* necessary, even with a 10 pound base, I *have* redundancy. The fact is a lot of what we take is for comfort - at least when merely "hiking" in temperate weather. Generally speaking, even when going ultralight, I have

1) more than one thing in my pack that can be a shelter, or made into one (usually a mini-tarp, piece of tyvek, and or jacket.)

2) more than one thing with enough warmth to pass the night in. (all my clothing, wrapped up in tarp, in sheltered place)

3) more than one thing to make fire, in more than one place in my pack. (multiple mini-bics)

and beyond that, frankly I carry enough body fat to walk out of anywhere I get into as long as I can walk, or sit there a very long time. Everything else comes down to comfort.

For me, UL isn't about taking chances - Frankly, it's the opposite, I've been out and about enough to know that I'm not, to see where the redundancies are in what I am carrying, to know I can improvise and adapt to deal with situations, and that gives me the confidence to have peace of mind while I'm out there. That in turn lets me enjoy myself without worrying about the environment.

So I suppose in a sense you are correct - in the absolute sense I can "do without" a lot of the stuff I carry. I wouldn't *enjoy* doing so, but if forced I definately could.

The flip side of that is I know of nobody carrying a 70 lb pack who carries an *extra* tent "just in case" - Glass jars of peanut butter, steel frypans, cutting boards, expresso makers, lawn chairs (yes, I've seen all of these) maybe..