I still have a couple of items to buy before I'm trail ready, but today I loaded up my pack to weigh it. Really unscientifically - I stepped on the bathroom scale without the pack, then put the pack on and subtracted. So I'll say my margin of error is +/- a pound.

What I've got:

Osprey Kestrel 38 pack
Enlightened Equipment quilt with a compressible dry bag
ALPS Mountaineering Mystique 1 (stripped down to just what I actually use)
stove with a dozen solid fuel tabs and a set of strike-anywhere matches (the stove can also be used with a small wood fire or an alcohol burner)
600mL pot and titanium spork
multi-tool
Sawyer Mini water filter and bladders
First aid kit (base kit is an REI kit, then I modified it based on my preferences and training - also includes survival items like an emergency blanket and whistle)
a couple of extra dry bags
A spade for cat hole digging
Extra paracord
camp towel

To round out my base weight, I'm planning to add a sleeping pad, a couple of clothing items, a pot holder of some sort, a flashlight and spare batteries, and compass.
But so far, according to both rough calculations and the aforementioned unscientific weighing method, I've got just under 10 lbs. I think my base weight will end up being 12 or 13lbs.

This seems suspiciously light to me. I worry that I forgot something... but I have shelter, a sleeping system, a cook system, a first aid kit, water purification and storage, and basic hygiene. I'll have the 10 essentials once I include consumables and trip-specific items (map!).

Hopefully nobody looks at my list and goes, "You dummy, you forgot (heavy/bulky but very important item)!" because I'm pretty happy with the idea of a 13lb base weight.