All true - but the ratio of poor planning to random act of bad luck is pretty interesting. The vast majority of our searches are for people with "experience" in the outdoors without real experience, and the search comes as a result of no planning and lots of assumptions and bad decisions.

Misfortunes do happen, but less often when you can get people to understand that climbing (mountaineering, not walking up a hill on a trail) is not a good solo activity no matter how much experience you have. And the vast majority of the searches we've had monthly have been folks underestimating water - which is really telling, since this is such a dry year and most of our rivers (Kings, San Joaquin, etc) are nothing close to their usual flow. Two kids died in the Merced below Vernal Falls - it's trickling compared to its usual. Most of the water rescues could totally be avoided if people were more careful, but that would mean awareness that they are not exempt from the warnings - OMG, why would that apply to us? I can swim!

Awareness always always helps. It helps you not do stupid things that lead to bad decisions. It's why there is a stapler in my car and a little pile of laminated signs talking about the ten essentials and precautions for hikers. NOT DOING THINGS YOU CAN'T DO requires that you understand they are beyond you. Awareness is the first step and sometimes the ONLY step you can reasonably expect Joe Public to take.

We are not going to get every person who attends the SAR presentations we have at REI to go out and learn how to self arrest. We MIGHT prevent them from going on a 60 mile four day backpacking trip without first going on a 10 mile, single night one to figure out how to work all the gear, stay dry, etc. because we can raise their awareness level that backpacking isn't just throwing junk in a sack and go. (20 year old male clause applies.)

We are NEVER going to keep the unexpected from happening, but we can make people aware of the possibilities and that they need to avoid certain things that increase the risk of broken bones, falls, drownings, etc - so that's what we do. No reasonable person can expect to completely eliminate risk, but there's good odds that nothing will happen. As the Gonzalez book Deep Survival points out, sometimes an expert is someone who makes the same mistake every time and never reaps the consequences. It isn't hard to make dumb mistakes and get off scott free - taking food into Yosemite without a bear can, building massive fires every night, free climbing randomly up stuff solo - people have done this and not paid the price. Other people do things wrong and they don't get in trouble or hurt, and so become convinced they won't have to pay attention, the park rangers are just paranoid, etc. I'm sure the experienced backpacker who died on Whitney four seasons ago had managed to survive poor hydration many many times, but that one trip he not only became dehydrated but hypothermic and confused, went the wrong way, fell into an altered state, and succumbed. I've been dehydrated lots of times, once very seriously to the point of an altered state. I try like nobody's business to avoid it each time and still struggle with it.

Awareness of the reality of things doesn't come easy to folks who just want to go backpacking. They will be afraid of bears but not respectful of water crossings. I go all the time with newbies - I'm taking my backpacking class out this weekend. And I can tell you that what's between their ears is the key to it all. You can talk skills all the live long day but you can't make them buy into the notion that they need to be able to light a fire with wet materials just in case - "I check the weather report before I go. I'll take fire paste. I'll just get in my sleeping bag."

It's a hard, hard sell to a leisure backpacker who will go once a year because the odds are actually really in their favor that nothing will go wrong. We really do not have a lot of folks get in trouble. One out of a thousand, maybe.

Extreme environments like desert or winter conditions in the mountains will have a minimal margin for error - and I'll bet folks get into trouble at a higher rate in the desert than in winter. People don't like being cold. Our winter efforts tend to be focused on the area around the ski resort or on roads where snowmobile enthusiasts travel.