Tom - I agree with most of what's been said here, including Jim's advice, with two small exceptions:

I'd use the sled if you're staying mostly on Glacier Point road or other packed/groomed trails.

I'd take the tent but dump the bivy and bag cover, and rent (or borrow) the 0 bag.

You also still might want the skins, depending on what your skis are like. I skied in with Karhu XCD GTs to Dewey Point recently, and only needed the skins for the last "black diamond" part of the trail. Glacier Point road was a breeze with those skis (they are non-waxable, metal-edged narrow skis not unlike yours). I used a pulk and really preferred it over a pack for my skill level on skis.

You could certainly go lighter with the tarp, but there's something to be said for the security and ease of setup of the tent. Tarping is something to think about for future trips, for sure (I've slept comfortably in my ultralight bivy with a poncho tarp over the top in winter, and we even had freezing rain and light snow), but I wouldn't be happy doing that in strong winds or blowing snow.

I've been taking my 6+ pound Hilleberg Jannu on my trips this time of the year; I like the insurance and comfort. At Dewey Point last month we had conditions switching between snow and rain, and it was really nice to have the extra shelter:



Lighter winter tents like the Biblers or Integral Designs mountaineering tents, and possibly even the Black Diamond Firstlight, would have done equally well. A really experienced person on this trip used a Kiva (teepee tent, no floor, more coverage than a tarp but similar idea) for him and his wife, and they weren't happy. It took a long time to set up, and it was soggy inside because of the conditions and temperature.

Have fun out there - wish I could join you! I pulled my MCL taking tele lessons this weekend, so I'll be taking it easy for a bit...