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#165792 - 05/10/12 11:52 AM Why nobody ever make mistakes
balzaccom Offline
member

Registered: 04/06/09
Posts: 2232
Loc: Napa, CA
Thought you might enjoy this post on our blog...


Have you ever noticed this? The minute a story comes out about someone who needs rescuing in the mountains, the internet message boards are filled with people who never, ever make that mistake, and here’s why. These posters are quick to point out all the things they do right, and how smart they really are about all this.

OK, fine.

We’re not so sure. In our experience, most disasters in the mountains aren’t caused by a single bad decision, but a combination of decisions that slowly lead to a really bad situation. And if you read the accounts carefully, you can usually find about three or four points in every story where a different decision would have led to a different result. Of course, not always for the better—but still. There were options. There are almost always options.

We’ve been on lots of trips where we took stock of where we were and decided that it was time to back off, back out, or back down. No, we weren’t facing certain death. But we just decided that we had gone far enough, pushed our luck with the elements far enough, or simply didn’t like the way things looked.

Or we’ve been slightly off trail, confused about the map, separated from our hiking partners, running out of water, getting cold, or worried about how late it was getting. None of those are very dangerous situations in and of themselves. We just didn't like the odds.

So we bailed. We turned around. That’s not very adventurous or determined, but it always seemed like the right decision at the time. You might read this and think that we are just like everyone else on the internet—that we’ve never made a mistake and we can’t imagine finding ourselves in a situation that requires rescue. You'd be wrong. In fact, we’d suggest just the opposite.

We CAN imagine ourselves in that situation, and that’s why we turn around (or chicken out.) We never like being in a situation where there is only one possible option to get out. The first option is always that you can turn around and go home. That’s a pretty good option in many cases, even if it doesn’t lead to epic or heroic adventures. Epic is over-rated.

The single best piece of survival equipment is your brain. And the best way to use it is to avoid situations with few potentially good outcomes. (You might explain that to the idiots who star in those outdoor survival shows on TV. They are clueless about this.)

The most famous example of all might be the Donner Party. They started a bit late, took an ill-advised cut-off, lost more time in the desert, and started up into the mountains when they were weak, low on food, low on energy and out of time. And that’s when the snows hit. Lots of people made similar mistakes, but not all on the same trip, and not in a year when the snows were massive. They left themselves with only one option, and it wasn't a good one.

Of course, if the Donner Party happened today, we would hear lots of explanations about how stupid they were, and how the various posters on the internet never find themselves in any trouble whatsoever when they travel, because they always make sure that …yadda yadda yadda.
_________________________
Check our our website: http://www.backpackthesierra.com/

Or just read a good mystery novel set in the Sierra; https://www.amazon.com/Danger-Falling-Rocks-Paul-Wagner/dp/0984884963

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#165793 - 05/10/12 12:10 PM Re: Why nobody ever make mistakes [Re: balzaccom]
OregonMouse Offline
member

Registered: 02/03/06
Posts: 6799
Loc: Gateway to Columbia Gorge
As I mentioned on another thread, every time a rescue story hits the local (Portland, OR) media, they are deluged with the following two comments, sounding like a broken record: (1) The rescued person should have taken a GPS to call SAR (never mind that GPS units do not have a communication feature!) and (2) the rescued person should pay for rescue (never mind that nearly all of SAR is volunteer and that SAR organizations are strongly opposed to charging for rescue because people will avoid asking for help to avoid the expense).

This free BPL article about two experienced hikers traveling a familiar trail, enjoying the beautiful fall day and conversation with each other, should be a lesson for all of us! While it's really rather funny, under other circumstances it could have led to tragedy. Any of us could have done the same! (I think I've linked to that article before, but it fits in so well with your excellent writeup here that I'm citing it again!)

Then there's the often-quoted statement (altered a little by me): "All the world is wrong except me and thee, and sometimes I wonder about thee." Not a good attitude to have!


Edited by OregonMouse (05/10/12 12:17 PM)
_________________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view--E. Abbey

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#165795 - 05/10/12 12:35 PM Re: Why nobody ever make mistakes [Re: balzaccom]
Glenn Offline
member

Registered: 03/08/06
Posts: 2617
Loc: Ohio
"Epic is over-rated." Sure is - or as someone once told me, "There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots."

Hindsight is 20-20 (accounting for the commentators' retrospective perfection), but you're exactly right: mistakes don't suddenly happen, they tend to sneak up on you.

Just got reminded of that last weekend, though on a much reduced scale from what you mentioned. A group of us set out on a two-night backpack on a trail we all were familiar with - except we were walking it in a different direction, headed for the one campsite we'd never stayed at. (Camping was allowed only in designated sites. I'm starting to think that's to make it easier to get to the bodies.) Overnight rain was forecast for the first night, but temps were going to be in the 50-80 range.

We started hiking (about half an hour later than we intended), and immediately took the wrong fork in the trail - another half hour wasted.

We hadn't counted on the trail being quite so muddy from previous days' rain - we'd forgotten that this section of the trail doesn't get hiked much. It was wet, slick, and overgrown in places. Fortunately, only one person fell - but ended up with a nasty bump on her head. (Dodged a bullet there.)

It started raining about halfway to camp; no big problem - rain gear out, we hiked along in blinkered dullness. After about an hour, someone noticed we hadn't seen a trail blaze in a while. Did I mention the sun is starting to set?

Fifteen minutes of retracing our steps got us back onto the trail (total time lost: another half hour.) We arrived at the trail junction with the side trail that would take us about a mile on in to camp. It was posted with a sign: Trail Closed; Campsite C Closed. ("I thought YOU were going to call the NFS office yesterday!") It's now 7:30pm, the sun is down, and we realize that the campsite was no longer a possibility, and the potable water we were counting on there didn't exist. (We were hiking in an old mining area, where tailings had polluted all the streams in the valleys with chemicals that filters wouldn't remove. NFS fills water tanks at each campsite, and most of the group wasn't carrying filters as a result.)

We were tired and wet, water was running low, and we hadn't eaten (who wants to stop for a break or to fix supper in the rain?) We carefully considered our options, and decided to try to make the next campsite, 4 miles away. (Yes, looking back on it today, I'm not sure how careful our consideration really was - but it seemed like a good deision at the time.) On we went; several decided not to pull out their headlamps and just follow the person in front of them. They all stumbled a few times, but managed not to fall. After another hour, we found a rainpocket in some rock near the top of a ridge, noticed a nearby flat area, and decided to call it quits for the night. The two of us who had brought filters were able to filter enough runoff for everyone to cook with (we made a determination that, above the mining level using a rain-created source rather ground-sourced water, we would probably be OK.)

Finally, around 9pm, we got supper made and collapsed into our tents. (The rest of the trip was uneventful: the rain quit about 4am, we had sunny, warm skies, and everything went pretty much as planned.)

Were we ever in any serious danger? No. BUT - change the scenario to a different season, or lower the temperature by 10 or 15 degrees that first evening, or toss in a sprained ankle, or an argument about which trail to take (with someone stalking off into the night by himself, convinced he's right), and it could have gotten serious very quickly. And I can't really point to any one, isolated decision that would have pushed us over the edge - it would have just crept up on us.

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#165796 - 05/10/12 12:36 PM Re: Why nobody ever make mistakes [Re: balzaccom]
Rick_D Offline
member

Registered: 01/06/02
Posts: 2939
Loc: NorCal
If ninteenth century newpapers had had web comment sections, they'd be filled with spittle-flecked rants saying, "Serves them right. My tax dollars better not be paying to rescue these idiots!"

I typically hike with a college buddy and we've taken so many trips for so long we never chat about our "what-ifs?" Well, one trip we had a creek crossing that had washed out and been replaced by an immense jumble of downed wood and no obvious crossing point. We found our way across separately and out of sight of one another, well away from the trail. I got across, found the trail and resumed hiking, presuming we'd run into one another soon enough.

Soon enough stretched into an hour or more and since we didn't have a specific stopping point—more of a "Let's find a spot along the river in this area." proposition—it finally occurred to me that 1. I couldn't know where to stop for camp, 2. I didn't know whether he was ahead or behind me and 3. since he'd lost his map at that crossing on the trip out, he might not even know where to leave the trail to find a campsite.

With my "duh" realization I returned to the last significant trail fork, waited and intermittantly blew my whistle. I can't recall how long it was before he finally returned my signal, and that was that.

Weather was late-summer perfect and we both had adequate gear and provisions to solo if need be, but a twist of fate—crappy weather, injury, etc.—could have made our little error very significant indeed, as we were two full days from the trailhead.

So yeah, it can be that easy to screw up.

Originally Posted By balzaccom
Of course, if the Donner Party happened today, we would hear lots of explanations about how stupid they were, and how the various posters on the internet never find themselves in any trouble whatsoever when they travel, because they always make sure that …yadda yadda yadda.


Cheers,
_________________________
--Rick

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#165797 - 05/10/12 12:39 PM Re: Why nobody ever make mistakes [Re: OregonMouse]
Gershon Offline
member

Registered: 07/08/11
Posts: 1110
Loc: Colorado
I wrote this article in 2000 for investing. Then I used it for a motorcycling forum. I feel it applies to backpacking, too.

Margin of Safety



I wrote this article back in 2000 for an investing website. I think it also applies to riding. It's imperative we build our riding skills to a level beyond that we will normally use so that when tested, we have the skills to invade our margin of safety without crashing. The series of exercises on this website may help do that.

Margin of safety,

Back in 1979, I got my first lesson on margin of safety, long before I ever heard of Benjamin Graham. I was investing as a blind sheep back then.

At the time I was a co-pilot in the Air Force, flying KC-135's. Another base had just had a crash where the crew died. Our Wing Commander came in to talk to the crews who were sitting alert. He was Col. Harry Johnson. He probably saved my life.

Col. Johnson came in the room visibly upset. You see, the crew probably died unnecessarily. They didn't use a margin of safety.

He said “Look guys, I know you don't like me much…but listen to me now. If you listen to nothing else, listen to this.”

He held his right hand about chest high and said “This is your flying ability.” He held his left hand about
stomach high and said “This is where I want you to fly.” The difference is your margin of safety. The distance between the two hands is what keeps you alive.

“Sometimes things will happen that will use up your margin of safety. These are generally unforeseen events.

Bad weather. Broken airplane, or a fight with your wife. I never want you to intentionally use any of this margin of safety to complete the mission. I'd rather you came home alive so you can complete the next mission.”

I distinctly remember a crew member laughing on the way out about the speech. He later died in a crash in Ohio. A spectacular crash where the aircraft came apart in the air. Instead of pilots, two of the crew member's wives were in the seats. Not a single pilot had access to the controls. I'd suggest they used up their margin of safety.

How did he save my life? One night, I was on final approach at Plattsburgh AFB in upstate New York. The wind was calm on the ground. But in the air, our ground speed was 70 knots faster than our airspeed. This indicated a loss of 70 knots of tailwind on final. This is a very dangerous situation because to land safely it requires a great increase in power as you lose the tailwind to slow your rate of descent. Nothing else was wrong.

I wasn't that great a pilot. I didn't have the stick and rudder skills of most other people. So my margin of safety was always large. I elected to take the approach around. On the radios I announced that I suspected there was a severe windshear on final. This causes planes to crash. The supervisor of flying publically chastised me on the radios for taking around a perfect approach while the winds were calm.

Rich came in right behind me. He was an excellent pilot. An instructor in stan eval (Which means he gave checkrides to other pilots.) The runway probably still bears the imprints from the landing. You see, it was a somewhat controlled crash. The landing gear was pushed a bit into the wings. The crew was ok, thanks to the stick and rudder skills of the pilot in averting a worse crash.

What does this have to do with investing? Ben discussed margin of safety. The distance between your hands. It is what keeps you alive when you encounter unforeseen events. Use it in driving, flying, everything you do, even investing.

Take a company like HD. They are probably fairly valued if everything goes perfectly for the next 15 years. But most likely there are other companies that are undervalued even if a few things go wrong.

An old pilot saying. “Use your superior knowledge and wisdom to avoid situations that require the use of your superior skill and cunning.”
_________________________
http://48statehike.blogspot.com/

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#165809 - 05/10/12 04:41 PM Re: Why nobody ever make mistakes [Re: Gershon]
balzaccom Offline
member

Registered: 04/06/09
Posts: 2232
Loc: Napa, CA
Originally Posted By Gershon
“Use your superior knowledge and wisdom to avoid situations that require the use of your superior skill and cunning.”


I love that quote!

And I really like the stories in response to my post. What a great group of people on these boards!
_________________________
Check our our website: http://www.backpackthesierra.com/

Or just read a good mystery novel set in the Sierra; https://www.amazon.com/Danger-Falling-Rocks-Paul-Wagner/dp/0984884963

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