After my most recent trip, I tweaked a spreadsheet to lump all items except for consumables together. It's amazing that what I thought of as my 'base weight' went up 6 pounds, once carried items were accounted for. I like thinking about the weight categories this way - so that everything but consumables is totaled up for a base skin-out-weight, and pack weight isn't considered at all. Before, I kept splitting things mentally into pack weight and carried weight - silly, I'm carrying it all!

I put my most recent load up for the poll - winter, but non-freezing and rainy, temps from 35F to 60F. Added 2 nights extra food to come at my total (last trip was 2 nights). So there are my caveats. I might drop a few pounds for summer Sierra hiking.