Honestly no one can tell you, it's personal preference. That being said I would get 10.5 when you buy new boots. Try going shopping at the end of the day so your feet are a little more swollen like they would be hiking to get a better feel. I also live in NC and hike the NC/TN/VA AT a lot. Unless there is snow on the ground I am in trail runners, Brooks Calderas. Given how much you run I don't think your feet would bother you in trail runners. My pack is usually 24-29lbs for a 5 day trip so I'm carrying about the same weight as you on the same terrain and love wearing trail runners. Unless there is a lot of rain in the forecast then I'd lean more towards a waterproof shoe or my boots. Happy Trails!