From long distance hitch hiking, hiking, and now hiking and cycle touring I have gone from super light to what I would say is regular and heavy. This has been a 40 year journey.
In my teens I hitched through Europe with only a plastic sheet and a sleeping bag. This year I put to rest my MSR Carbon Reflex 2 and finally turned away from ultralight.
Now, for hiking I use, Exped Mira II previous model: 2kg. For cycle touring I dumped the useless and super overrated Hilleberg Rogen and now use the Exped Venus II: 3kg.
Before I explain why, I confirm your astute observation: yes I am only taking about shelter. In all other things I am ultralight.
First of all, I think only a tent offers real protection no matter the weather.
I live in Japan and we get extremes of weather including typhoons. And the problem with light tents is the materials are too fragile and don't last very long. More importantly, they cannot handle very heavy or semi dangerous weather. So, unless the weather is lovely and the forecast similar, you can never climb into the tent without some worry.
Add some extra weight and you get a water column tent floor of 10,000 mm and a fly sheet of 1500. 10mm poles. You can have a tent that does not collapse in 100km winds.
To conclude, I think when it come to the shelter, some extra weight will save you money because the tent will last longer and give you peace of mind: you close your eyes at night knowing you will not wake up to imminent disaster. No matter what.