I'd say that for the most part you're right, a few chemical warmers and a big poncho will keep you alive overnight in some pretty rugged conditions and I certainly agree that's it's a good idea to have a clue about how your back plan will work out. You seem to be taking a minimalist approach to this though, and while there's nothing wrong with that, I think it's important to understand this.

Personally, I take a bit more stuff for the emergency overnighter, and I'd most certainly get a fire going if I wanted or needed one to be comfortable, and it was safe to do so.

And it's important to understand, like you've pointed out, that what works is really regional, seasonal, and even current conditions based.

I generally bring one of those "SOL" emergency blankets, a rain jacket, hard warmers, and some extra food, along with my FAK and some basic backpacking gear like tape and needle, thread, etc. So far I've never needed to use it, but that's probably because I generally bring it, but I'm a firm believer that the time I don't is when I'll really need it.



_________________________
--

"You want to go where?"