So I have been researching shells, trying to at least get an idea of what I want and I have come across two from suggestions on this forum that have peaked my interest.

http://www.rei.com/product/804391/marmot-precip-rain-jacket-mens

and

http://www.backcountry.com/patagonia-houdini-full-zip-jacket-mens

Now it seems the Patagonia isn't a "hard shell" so it may not hold up in a good rain but would the Marmot hold up any better? It seems to me as long as it is "waterproof" rain should not pass through and the difference between feeling like a wet dog or being dry are the layers you have on underneath the shell. Am I on to something here or just waaaaaay off?

This is what my wife and I have. They held up good in some heavy thundershowers with hail last year. It's nice to have the pants too. They go on over my boots. They are very light and pack down well. You probably wouldn't want to brush bust in them but work well for the trail or around camp.
http://www.wingsupply.com/closeout-closet/closeout-apparel/frogg-toggs-khaki-pro-action-suit/
I haven't seen or tried these but they maybe a little heavier.
http://www.wingsupply.com/closeout-close...rainsuit-green/

Need more information on your priorities and planned use to comment.

Personally, I don't expect to stay completely dry in a shell unless it's just for a short time (walking to a local store from home) if it's steadily raining. I like a shell that keeps me pretty dry, breathes enough that it can double as a wind shirt, and is very light weight (I think mine weighs 7 oz). That might not be anything like the sort of thing you're looking for.

Well I would use it for basically hiking and backpacking. A short term goal is to hike some of the AT, and maybe this summer go back to the Grand Canyon and hike across it. I like the light weight and size of the Patagonia. It also seems to have gotten very good reviews. Lets say I wear something like http://www.mountainhardwear.com/Men%27s-Elmoro%E2%84%A2-L/S-Zip-T/OM4616,default,pd.html
underneath it, would that help me not feel like a wet dog?

At a certain level, when it's humid, even gore tex doesn't work well. It might keep the water out, but you are working so hard that you get wet from your own sweat hitting the membrane/jacket and condensing.

To give you an idea of the potential level of effort involved, I was on the AT in a light snowstorm this last year in lightweight pants, an underarmour t-shirt, gloves, and a fleece hat. It was in the upper twenties/lower thirties and I was generating so much heat that I stripped off my jacket and fleece and put them in my bag.

I've had many rain jackets and no longer expect to stay dry at all, ever. I have a dry base layer in a dry bag in the pack, for night time. The rain layer (pants and jacket) are for warmth.

If it is warm enough that I sweat while wearing the rain gear, I just get wet. If it's too cold to go without, I put on the rain gear, and get wet from the inside out but stay warm.

Some rain gear just wets out and fails completely - my last waterproof breathable did exactly that. I was standing in the rain (not hiking, not sweating, standing, hood up, watching the show). My tent interior and gear were dry. My shirt, bra and skin were all wet. The jacket weighed at least a pound more than it does when dry. And, my hiking companion's Marmot Precip did exactly the same thing mine did.

The Precip and Houdini are two completely different beasts. The Precip, provided you keep your activity level low (e.g. just standing around), will keep you dry from water coming in. The Houdini will shed a real rain for maybe 10-15 minutes, and then the water will saturate and it the jacket will stick to you and let a good bit of water in.

The challenging thing is when you are active. The Precip isn't that "breathable", which means while it keeps water out, it also isn't that good at letting your perspiration escape, so you can end up soaked in your own sweat. The Houdini is much better at letting perspiration out while blocking wind and maybe very light drizzle.

As others have pointed out, there really isn't any rain jacket made today that will keep you fully dry if you are exerting yourself other that carrying a really large umbrella provided you don't have side blown rain to content with. Everything will be a compromise. The best you can hope for is warm enough and dry enough that critical things can dry out over night.

More thoughts on my recommended raingear page.

--mark

Wearing something like that polypro item underneathe will make you warmer --- great if you need the warmth, otherwise you'll just be more wet due to sweat.

The 4 oz unit might be fine, dunno --- look for reviews by actual users, perhaps on backpackinglight.com (?). The 14 oz jacket is overkill IMO.

My current rain jacket is an Outdoor Research Helium, 7 oz in size large. It's good to renew the DWR on it infrequently, but it's been a good purchase. For backpacking trips in future I'll be disinclined to carry a much more than this for rain gear, and it works as a fine wind shirt substitute for me too.

Try the cheapest options first.

1. Poncho: relies on air circulation for breathability, might get in way on climbs/scrambles.

2. DriDucks: decent breathability, bring Tyvek tape or duct tape for patches

3. eVENT: decent breathability, more durable than DriDucks, but is it worth the money and extra weight to you?

My solution was both a set of DriDucks and an eVENT Packa.

I just recieved (from rei.outlet) a Seirra Designs Hurricane rain shell which looks similiar to the Marmot rain shell that was in your first link. It's supossed to be a breathable waterproof fabric, has pit zips, and weighs around 14oz. I guess that is on the heavy side, but it's lighter than the O.R. goretex jacket I had. It was also $32. My plan is to use it as a rain jacket in rain or as a wind shell or additional outer layer over a soft shell jacket As long as I'm not too active during a steady rain I would think the rain shell over the soft shell should keep me warm and dry (enough)

A dumb question maybe, from a relative newbie (I've car camped, done multiday canoe trips - but only one 4 day backpacking trip):

If you aren't in freezing weather, is there any reason to not just keep a waterproof cover on the pack, and allow yourself to just be rained on and get wet?

There are many who take the approach that one will get wet anyway. The only choices are whether it happens quickly, or slowly or whether the wetness comes from rain, sweat, dew, etc... Many also accept that a waterproof cover for ones pack is also futile and instead opt for a waterproof liner(s). For me, it all depends on the trip, time of year, etc... In general, I am wet at the end of the day regardless. It is either sweat, rain or both. I plan my gear appropriately to deal with my reality and change to my dry clothing when I know it will stay dry. On multi-day trips I have often put on wet/damp clothing in the AM with full knowledge that dry clothes would soon become wet anyway. More often than not, my body isn't happy the instant those cold damp clothes hit my body, but once I start moving I am fine. YMMV.

You don't have to have freezing weather to be hypothermic. The definition of hypothermia is not freezing - it's when your core body temperature drops just 2-3 degrees and you start to shiver. You are moderately hypothermic when your core temp is 95 - 90F, when you shiver intensely, experience poor muscle coordination, and start to have poor focus, altered personality, confusion, difficulty speaking (mumbles, stumbles, fumbles...). When your core temperature drops to 90F and below, you'll be unable to walk, and starting to lose consciousness as your temp drops.

Most hypothermia cases happen in summer in temps 40-60F because people do not factor in wind chill, wetness and hydration/nutrition - you need to be adequately hydrated, eating well, and have the awareness to layer up and put on a rain shell or poncho when needed. Hiking while wet at 60 won't necessarily be a bad thing; hiking while wet at 50F but not hiking very hard, and not having enough layers, is probably going to be a problem, especially if you stop hiking for a while and don't change out of the wet clothes. It sounds stupid, but people do fail to think about these things, and sometimes it's because that core temp has already dropped a few degrees and they're starting to be hypothermic already. Fortunately folks also tend to build a fire and/or eat when they stop hiking for the day.

A side question, Lori: There are two schools of thought on hiking alone: 1) Don't do it, period, and 2) "No problem." (I tend to fall in the middle: I do it, I enjoy it, but I am aware that it increases the inherent risk of the trip and plan accordingly. As I get older, I find I enjoy companionship more, and hike solo less - but I still hold that solo hiking is not to be feared.)

So, when hiking with someone, you have a built in safety margin of sorts that you don't have when hiking alone: one of you will become hypothermic less quickly, and will notice the other doing so in time to call a halt.

Do you have any advice on how, when hiking solo, you can guard against the inability to notice you're becoming hypothermic in time to do something about it? (Other than, "you just have to be super-aware of your condition at all times"?)

There are, as usual, caveats to anything. Hiking in a group is quoted as a safety measure, particularly for beginners, because others in the group will notice you begin to stumble, mumble, etc. (which is a sign of dehydration as well as heat stroke/exhaustion as well as hypothermia - all of these conditions affect your brain function, in the same way having not enough oil in the engine affects your car - you just don't run well unless you are lubricated well enough, and able to maintain your optimum operating temp.)

Group hiking is useful if everyone in the group is aware of these symptoms, and those of elevation sickness - which, again, can involve altered states and motor coordination issues. And also involves dehydration. It's also helpful if everyone in the group knows what to do when you have the symptoms. (I had a hard time talking a hypothermic backpacker into going somewhere other than a peak top in a storm - it would have been easier if I'd known him and not just met him on the trail.)

Hiking solo is something folks will do despite the risk - one of the things you can do to mitigate the risk is to develop a plan, and follow it without exception. One of the first things I learned (the hard way, darn it) is that while hiking I am not immediately aware of needing to drink until already dehydrated and thirsty. So adopting a habit of sipping as I hike - say, every 10 - 20 minutes or so - rather than doing the tank-up-every-once-in-a-while thing many people do, keeps me from getting dehydrated. Being less stubborn about stopping to do things like put on or take off a layer, and having layers that work for the conditions you are in, decreases risk.

Experience is tough to quantify - it's possible to backpack every year for decades and never develop an awareness of the body's cues, and never suffer consequences. But I think that paying attention to what my body does during and after a long hike has improved my ability to properly hydrate and has made the harder trips and the longer miles more comfortable in general. It is hammered into us on every SAR training to mind our safety first and foremost because we are no good to the subjects if we arrive exhausted and dehydrated on the scene to start the search. We are required to write down how much sleep we had last night, and to take breaks and to eat regularly. It would be easy to get so caught up in the adrenalin rush and search non stop - it is especially important in periods of stress to pay attention to self care.

The main thing with solo hiking is I think knowing the real risks and all the ways you can prevent worst case scenarios - planning and prevention. If you never get dehydrated, hypothermic, etc. you won't have to rely on yourself to recognize the symptoms.

A concrete way to monitor hydration (and by association those other conditions, for which hydration is key) is urination - have you watered anything lately? what color was it? Infrequent and dark is a good tipoff you probably need to drink more often. Shivering is a tipoff to layer up - if you're still shivering after that stop and set up shelter, sleeping gear, have a meal, drink hot bevvies, until you get it under control. Not good to push on and risk getting to the point that you are unable to function.

This turned into a very interesting discussion with Lori nicely outlining the issues and avoidance of hypothermia. I can't add much except a little from my own personal experience.

From when I was a little kid, my dad drilled into me a coupe of rules for in the backcountry. Possibly one of the more obscure ones was if you are knocking rocks loose on or off trail, you are screwing up. Every time I go out my goal is to never knock anything loose. This was driven home to me when my metamorphic petrology prof, an old austrian climber as well, shot my friend a dirty look after he knocked some rocks loose while we were working our way up to an outcrop. It's habit for me now to check myself when I begin to stumble around at all. First I'm angry with myself, but then I go through the "list" of potential reasons.

I'm kind of an oddball here, but the other thing I do is hike a fair amount in the rain. I get wet a lot and through practice I know what I am capable of handling and when to pull up and get warm. There has be more than once while back packing that I pulled up, set up camp, ate something and then got in my sleeping bag to warm up and it was early afternoon. If I do anything, I tend to take too many spare clothes just because I know myself.

I think if "you" have strong habits and can use these habits to tie into monitoring yourself, you are going to be ahead of the game because you are already practiced at monitoring yourself for that particular habit. In other words, build on to something you already do or use what ever that is, but link it to checking yourself for hypothermia or Acute mountain sickness, ect. Take the general knowledge that is out there and personalize it. The best tool you have with you is in your head and you're always carrying it with you anyway.