Long-term Weather Forecasts

Anyone know of some pretty reliable monthly weather forecasts, other than the Farmer's Almanac or weather.com?
I'm spending the month on the Kenai Peninsula of Alaska and would like to have a general idea of the weather, if at all possible.

Best,
Sarah

Honestly there are no truly reliable forecasts beyond 48 hours. Prepare for the worst an area regularly receives seasonally at the very least. I tend to up that a few notches. Better to carry too much than have a light load and die.

For forecasts I use these guys.

Since all the data used by all weather forecasters is collected by the National Weather Service, I tend to stick with them.

IMHO, long range weather forecasts (anything more than 48 hours out) are so unreliable, especially in an area prone to violent and changeable weather or places (like mountains) that make their own weather. I look at the forecast for my starting date just before I leave and go prepared for anything to happen after that. The reasons for starting on a nice day are strictly psychological; it's a lot harder to leave a dry, warm vehicle and head out into pouring rain or blowing snow than it is to head out on a bluebird day!

When planning for a trip, I look at past climatic data, not the weather forecast. I check for the record highs, lows, and precipitation for the time of year I'm going, and ignore the averages altogether. I assume that the record numbers are unusual but do plan on its getting fairly close (such as 5*F warmer than the record low for that date). As often as not, I have encountered those conditions or close to it on a week's trip. If I don't, that's fine! If I do, the half pound (at the most) of extra insulation can make all the difference!

Sound advice -- was hoping for an inkling, but I should've known better. I usually use NOAA but they haven't a monthly forecast. Thanks!

NOAA doesn't consider long term forecasts reliable this they don't use them.

BTW the link in my first post was NOAA. The NWS is a branch oif NOAA.

I do look at long range forecasts, but I don't count on them. Where I live, the weather I get comes from either across Canada, or up the US east coast, or a blend of both. I know if there's a storm in Toronto, or New York, chances are in a couple days I'll get rain. I hope that it will move either north or east of me for sunshine, but that doesn't always happen. I look for a general idea of what may be coming, but never count on it. I don't have to worry about the area making it's own weather, but the way weather tracks can vary the forecasts greatly. This year I've looked to see whether it would rain that evening... morning said 60% chance, by noon down to 20%, by the end of the workday 80% and it rained.

When I looked last week at our forecast for this week, they were calling for sunny, warm weather all week... around 28C. On Monday morning, the temperature went from summer to fall and we had cloudy around 18C. Today is sunny, but still cool temperatures. Put that scenario in a mountainous region, think 10C change to 0C, and it only amplifies it more.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

I recall seeing a month long forecast on one of the privately owned services, maybe "accuweather", and wondering just how accurate they were, and thinking probably not very.

OM is right, as good as they are, and they are good, 48 hours is still all I'll trust then for when planning a backpacking trip because I've paid very close attention to the accuracy of those 3-day forecasts over the years. For the most part, the 3-day forecast is pretty accurate here, but when I'm winter camping here I've learned to hike to the top of a ridge where I can get a cell phone signal and check the latest forecast after that 1st 48 hours. That has saved my butt at least once, and I've changed my plans a few more times based on what I learned.

I'll have to take note of Accuweather's forecast and compare the actual weather in my journal.

I've found weekly New England weather forecasts to be accurate somewhat, sometimes (however obscure that sounds).
The weekly forecast in Kenai Fjords National Park has shown even less accuracy -- predicted rainy days have been mostly sunny.

I can only hope for less precipitous and mild days next month.

Long ago I read a book called "In Search of Certainty". It was very mathematical and a lot went over my head, but the gist of the book was the ability to predict, and weather was one example. Regardless of the data, and super-computers, mathematically you can only predict better than a dart throw five days out. There simply are too many variables. Better data will not make any difference.

There are correlations with other phenomena, such as an El Nino, that get you a bit better than 50/50 for a generally wet or dry a few months out. But that does not get you any better than a 5-day prediction for any specific day or days.

Maybe you could turn to the IPCC, they seem to have made longterm weather predictions. But maybe they too are not that reliable either. I know they predicted in 2000 50 million people to be refugees due to water and weather conditions in 2010. When 2010 came and no refugees were found the IPCC just said " Ok, but that will happen in 2020" If it does not happen then, they probably will say it will happen in 2030.

So with a warning like that it is easy to say "I told you so."