The "Wild" Effect

Local radio station reported on the PCT from Toulumne Meadows, where the resupply line at the Post Office counted in the dozens, while the PCTA reports thru-hike permits were up tenfold this year (3,000 vs 300).

Never underestimate the power of an idea, well-packaged.

It's a perfect (non)storm of media focus and the missing winter that has far more folks attempting the thing and assuring a much higher than typical fraction will finish. As far as I'm concerned we needed something to kickstart backpacking with millenials, so in balance I'm happy for this result. Longterm, we'll have more pull when it comes to the inevitable clash of interests in how the backcountry is managed and where precious resources are expended (think trail maintenance versus logging road construction).

So, I suppose I must say thanks to Reese Witherspoon.

Cheers,

Note that a "thru-hike permit" just requires you to state that you intend to hike at least 500 miles of the PCT. I.e., it's excellent for chunk-hiking, doesn't imply that all recipients plan to hike the whole trail in one year. Still, your point is entirely valid (!).

I remember standing in line at Toulumne Meadows to get a burger at the grill, and the line was all of maybe 4 people long. If I waited to get my package there I perhaps waited behind one other person. Dozens in line boggles the mind, as I was right with the "herd" or perhaps just a bit ahead in 2008. By the time you're at Toulumne Meadows you're done with the Sierras and have hiked on the order of 1000 miles or so.

Hmm, but I wonder how many JMT hikers resupply there too? I wouldn't think a lot do. Doing the JMT I just got a resupply bucket at Muir Trail Ranch. But maybe some do. Time of day and time of year makes a big difference too. Still, the hiker ghetto set aside for PCT thru-hikers at Tuolumne Meadows was quite full and party-on atmosphere when I was there; pleasant then, perhaps a madhouse now (?).

Hard to put this stuff into perspective; we'll get post-year stats at some point for those interested.

Here's a graph made in December of PCT finishers by year, though of course the data is always suspect (self-reported finishers, no one is there taking attendance!):
http://www.guthookhikes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PCT_FINISHERS.png

The book 'Wild' was published early in 2012; the movie, of course, came out in December of last year.

That's funny.

Same thing happened here with fly fishing after "A River Runs Through It". I took my daughter camping and made the mistake of going first to a local stream that's spring fed and stocked with trout on opening weekend. I didn't expect to see hardly anyone there and it was packed elbow to elbow along the shore with people whipping flies around every which way possible.

From my observations these kinds of trends have their share of ill effects too. Like the trail or stream you used to find solitude is now elbow to elbow with newbies who make messes and hook themselves and anyone near them in the ear with flies.

In this case, I suspect we'll see a lot more rescue calls, and I doubt the local services can ramp up for a 1000% increase in those.

On the upside, gear makers should do well, and these fads fade fairly fast. (say that 3 times fast )

If I had been planning a trip there this year I'd be awfully disappointed and I'm sure I'd change my plans. While some would love it, I would not. The number of people there who did nothing more than watch that movie and go buy gear before heading out would be 10 times more than usual, and perhaps even greater, and they'd all find me and demand I save them from themselves. I am a powerful magnet for that, and they've wore me out.

It could be fun though if you go with the right attitude. It could be downright hilarious!

Found a Link to the report for anybody interested.

For those who've made it that far their chances of finishing seem quite good (I reckon the dropout rate prior to has to be above 50%). Heck, their ability to group together with others hiking at about the same pace must be off the charts compared to a more typical year, so more folks to prop one another up on the down days. And if there's been a year since Eric Ryback with fewer snow and stream impediments from border to border, I couldn't begin to name it. Nobody got snow last winter.

The big impediment this year will be a different one than snow, and one that has grown increasingly common: wildfires. It is a rare year in the past decade that fires haven't closed some stretch of the PCT, forcing thru-hikers into off-trail detours.

Oh yes, it's a real possibility as summer goes on. I'm taking my "big trip" a month earlier than usual primarily to try and avoid it. Lots of thunderstorms in the Sierra today, BTW.

Agreed --- every year has its challenges. Fires more this year, and I presume water was an issue in SoCal with so very many people, and certainly some of those wouldn't understand or care about cache etiquette. Just the average temperatures are an issue. SoCal and sometimes other parts of California can be quite hot, a particular challenge for folks who lack experience at high temperatures in a relatively dry landscape. This year is tougher than average in that way.

To put the fire issue in perspective, fires on the PCT are an issue I think almost EVERY year for thru-hikers. Section hikers can just pick a different section. Thru-hikers do walk-arounds, sometimes break the rules to walk through (hopefully that's rare ...), sometimes they "flip" --- meaning hitchhike around the fire then come back to hike what they missed later. I took the latter approach on my trip for a couple of fires in NorCal.

The extra pressure of so many people is something the PCT is having to adjust to. When I hiked 7 years ago there was already debate and discussion of the "herd" effect. It's typically a somewhat narrow window of time when folks start, limited by snow in the Sierras and concern about snow falling at the end in northern WA. Certainly the window would have been a lot wider this year, and the new permit system helped to force the herd to spread out earlier. Still, not everything scales up well to bigger hiker numbers.

All things being equal, I'm not sure I'd say that this year is particularly "easy", just "differently hard". Certainly an experienced hiker who is willing to night hike in SoCal could reap the benefit of low snow in the Sierras, however by starting ahead of the this-year herd.